Danny Ward vs. Mads Hermansen: Goalkeeper Stats, Saves, and Distribution

Choosing your number one goalkeeper is one of the biggest calls a manager makes. For Leicester City Football Club, that decision has been at the heart of their squad rebuild under Enzo Maresca. Last season, Danny Ward was the man between the sticks in the Premier League. This season, Mads Hermansen arrived as a key summer transfer window signing to help with the promotion push from the EFL Championship.

So, how do they really stack up? If you're trying to figure out who should be the first name on the matchday squad sheet, you need to look beyond just the flashy saves. Let's break down their stats, styles, and suitability for the current system in a practical, step-by-step way. By the end of this, you'll be able to analyze any goalkeeper debate like a pro.

What You'll Need

Before we dive into the numbers, gather these few things. It’ll make the comparison much clearer:

Access to Stats Sites: Platforms like FBref, Sofascore, or the official Premier League and EFL websites are goldmines for detailed goalkeeper data.
Context is Key: Remember the teams they played behind. Ward faced elite EPL attacks weekly. Hermansen plays in a dominant Leicester City side in the second tier.
An Understanding of Maresca's System: The head coach demands a goalkeeper who is essentially an 11th outfield player. Distribution and comfort on the ball are non-negotiable.
Patience with Sample Sizes: Ward's data comes from a full, tough top-flight season. Hermansen's is from a Championship campaign where Leicester City often has most of the ball.

Alright, let's get into the step-by-step analysis.

Step 1: Start with the Basics – The Traditional Goalkeeping Stats

First, we look at the classic numbers: the ones your grandad would check first. These tell us about shot-stopping, the primary job.

Danny Ward (22/23 Premier League Season):
Goals Conceded: 64 in 38 matches.
Clean Sheets: 6.
Saves per 90 minutes: 3.2.
Save Percentage: ~60%.

Mads Hermansen (23/24 Championship Season, to date):
Goals Conceded: Significantly fewer (context: Leicester has one of the best defensive records).
Clean Sheets: A high number, reflecting the team's control.
Saves per 90 minutes: Lower than Ward's, often because he faces fewer shots.
Save Percentage: Generally higher, but again, the quality of chance faced is different.

What this tells us: Ward was consistently busy and faced a high volume of high-quality chances in a struggling side. Hermansen is part of a defensive unit that limits chances, so his raw save numbers are lower. The first lesson: never judge a keeper on clean sheets alone—it's a team stat.

For more on how the entire squad is shaping up, check out our full Leicester City squad analysis and updates.

Step 2: Dive Deep into the Modern Metric – Post-Shot Expected Goals (PSxG)

This is where it gets interesting. PSxG measures the likelihood of a shot being saved based on where it ends up on target. It's the best public metric we have to judge pure shot-stopping ability, isolated from the defence.

PSxG - Goals Concluded = Goals Prevented. A positive number means the keeper saved more than an "average" keeper would be expected to.
Ward's 22/23 PSxG: Unfortunately, his numbers here were negative. He conceded more goals than the average model expected him to, based on the shots on target he faced. This was a key statistical factor in the team's struggles.
Hermansen's 23/24 PSxG: His numbers are typically positive. He's saving shots at a rate that meets or exceeds the expected model, a crucial trait for a team with title aspirations.

Danny Ward:
Pass Style: More traditional. Tended to go long (over 40+ yards) a high percentage of the time.
Launch Percentage: Very high. This is the percentage of goal kicks launched long.
Pass Completion: Lower, especially for shorter passes, as long balls are inherently less accurate.
Comfort on the Ball: Looked less assured when pressed, leading to hurried clearances and turnovers in dangerous areas.

Mads Hermansen:
Pass Style: A modern "sweeper-keeper." His distribution is short, crisp, and intentional.
Launch Percentage: Very low. He almost always looks to play short to his centre-backs or full-backs to start the build-up.
Pass Completion: Exceptionally high, often well over 90%. He is a reliable outlet.
Comfort on the Ball: Supreme. He acts as an extra defender, killing opposition presses with a single touch and opening the game up. This is his standout attribute.

The Promotion Pressure: The King Power Stadium expects wins every week. A keeper's mistake feels magnified. Hermansen was brought in for this pressure cooker. Ward was inheriting it after Kasper Schmeichel's departure—an incredibly tough ask.
Building from the Back: At Seagrave Training Ground, every drill is about controlling the ball. Hermansen is a foundational piece of that identity. His presence allows defenders like Wout Faes to play with more confidence.
The Long-Term Project: Hermansen is younger and represents a strategic signing for a new era. Ward, a loyal servant, found himself the face of a difficult transitional season.

Think of it like this: it's not just about who makes the best save, but who makes the entire team function better. Hermansen's distribution to a midfielder like Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is a key attacking trigger.

Speaking of key players returning to fitness, the potential impact of a fit-again Harvey Barnes on the promotion challenge would be another major boost.

Step 5: Build Your Final Verdict Checklist

So, how do you decide? Don't just go with a gut feeling. Run through this practical checklist:

[ ] Check the PSxG +/-: Is the keeper outperforming the quality of shots he faces?
[ ] Analyze Pass Completion & Launch %: Do their distribution stats fit the manager's stated style of play?
[ ] Watch for "Actions Outside the Box": How often do they sweep up through balls? This prevents shots altogether.
[ ] Contextualize the Data: Are they playing for a possession-dominant side or a team under constant siege?
[ ] Factor in Age and Project Timeline: Does this keeper fit the club's current phase (e.g., survival battle, promotion bid, top-six consolidation)?

Tip: Don't get blinded by one incredible world-class save. Consistency in the basics (handling, positioning, distribution) is far more valuable over 46 games.
Tip: Listen to what the defenders say. They know better than anyone which keeper makes them feel more secure and starts attacks smoothly.
Common Mistake: Blaming the keeper for every goal. Defending is a unit skill. Look at whether the defence is consistently leaving the keeper exposed to high-quality chances.
Common Mistake: Ignoring the transfer fee and contract. Under Financial Fair Play (FFP), a significant investment like Hermansen is a clear signal of the club's and owner Aiyawatt Srivaddhanaprabha's strategic intent.

[ ] Gather traditional stats (saves, clean sheets) but treat them as a starting point, not the conclusion.
[ ] Investigate Post-Shot Expected Goals (PSxG) to judge pure shot-stopping ability.
[ ] Crunch the distribution numbers – launch percentage and pass completion are critical for modern keepers.
[ ] Watch them play! Assess their comfort on the ball and command of the penalty area.
[ ] Contextualize everything – the league, the team's style, and the club's overall project phase.
[ ] Synthesize the data to answer one question: Does this goalkeeper make the team* better?

For Leicester City in the 2023/24 season, the data, the eye test, and the tactical demands point decisively towards Mads Hermansen as the key figure in goal for their promotion push. His distribution has become a weapon, while his shot-stopping has been more than reliable. Danny Ward's challenging season in the top division highlighted a mismatch of skillset and system—a reminder that in football, the right player at the wrong time can make all the difference. The baton has been passed, and it's Hermansen's gloves to lose as The Foxes chase their dream of a Premier League return.